Monday, November 08, 2004

Red and Blue: Reprise 2004

The long expected 2004 vote maps by county are finally here! The same city/suburb/rural patterns that were in the 2000 data are still present.

The votes by county for 2004 and 2000 side-by-side (red=100% Bush, blue=100% Kerry or Gore, gray=50%/50%).

2004 Votes by County (click for larger image)

2000 Votes by County (click for larger image)

Next, the same maps with population density shown as lightness/darkness (log scale, black=10,000 per sq mile, white=0)

2004 Votes by County with Population Density (click for larger image)

2000 Votes by County with Population Density (click for larger image)

Finally, the percentage change between 2000 and 2004. Pure red is an increase in Bush voters of 10% or more, pure blue is decrease in Bush voters of 10% or more, and gray is no change between 2000 and 2004.

Difference between 2000 and 2004 Votes (click for larger image)

The last one is the real paydirt. Apparently the voters in Barry Goldwater-conservative states like Utah or Wyoming were unenthused with the president. They voted for him anyway, but less than in 2000. He made big gains in many other unlikely areas like New York, New Jersey, Maryland and Illinois. But it was his huge gains in Appalachia and the Southern Lowlands that ultimately gave him the election.

OTHER MAPS: Some other maps are worth a look.

CommonWealth Magazine has an most excellent 10-region model of the country which you can picture on top of the county maps. It really begins to explain things.

ElectionLine has a map of the voting technologies used in each county. Comparing that with my map of changes from 2000 to 2004 should hopefully discourage any Diebold conspiracy theories. Yes, e-voting without a paper trail is still very broken, but it doesn't seem to have affected this election's outcome.

ESRI has a 3D map of counties with number of voters as height. Nice because cities look like high-rises.

Ouside the Beltway has the original USA Today maps from 2000 and 2004.

Mark Newman has cartograms and a fascinating histogram of votes by county. I do not agree with his analysis, but this is something worth pursuing [UPDATE: turns out the histogram was just bad data, the corrected histogram is not unusual].

BoingBoing has a "Purple Haze" map which is mostly purple. Colorimetrically, the mid- and end-points are off, creating the highly inaccurate appearance of a mostly-moderate, perhaps slightly-blueish country.

Kiernan Healy has several maps, including another misleadingly purple map by Robert Vanderbel and a nice state-level cartogram from the NY Times.

NOTE: Astute readers will notice that the vote+density maps are slightly different from the original maps for 2000. Yes, I've tweaked the color algorithm, which is why I show the new 2004 and 2000 side-by-side.

NOTE: Maine and large parts of Massachusets, New Hampshire and Vermont are missing. If I can obtain reliable county-level data for those states I will add them. Sorry.